Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks - 2026-09-27

Mets Situational Record

Situation	Record	Avg R	Avg RA
Day games	31-32 49%	4.4	3.9
Sundays	12-15 44%	3.9	3.3

Source: 2026 season game log • Full trend finder →

Matchup Details

New York Mets	Category	Washington Nationals
-110	Odds	-109
74-87	Season Record	76-85
3-2	Last 5 Record	3-2
38-42 (away)	Home/Away Record	38-42 (home)
7-5	Season Series Record	5-7

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Sean Manaea Record 6-7

NYM · L

Traditional

ERA

Avg: 4.2

41th %ile

4.67

WHIP

Avg: 1.28

55th %ile

1.30

Avg: 22.5

46th %ile

22.5%

BB%

Avg: 8.2

69th %ile

6.9%

Recent Starts

Date	Opp	IP	ER	K
09-22	Texas Rangers	6.0	2	9
09-15	Baltimore Orioles	5.1	2	6
09-08	Miami Marlins	5.0	4	4

Advanced Stats vs Opponent

NYM Sean Manaea	2026	WSN Offense
11.1% 7.5% 19th %ile	Barrel %	8.9 7.5% #4 MLB
0.254 0.248 46th %ile	xBA	0.245 0.248 #5 MLB
41.9% 37% 35th %ile	Hard Hit %	39.3 37% #17 MLB
0.443 0.400 37th %ile	xSLG %	0.408 0.400 #3 MLB

Advanced Stats vs Opponent Splits

NYM Sean Manaea	2026	WSN Profile
Left	Pitching Hand / vs Split	vs Left-handed pitching
144.2	Innings Pitched / Plate Appearances	3548
22.5% 22.5% 62nd %ile	K%	21.8 22.5% #15 MLB
6.9% 8.2% 78th %ile	BB%	9 8.2% #14 MLB

DJ Herz Record 0-1

Washington Nationals · L

Traditional

ERA

Avg: 4.2

5th %ile

9.00

WHIP

Avg: 1.28

5th %ile

1.75

Avg: 22.5

41th %ile

21.1%

BB%

Avg: 8.2

37th %ile

10.5%

Recent Starts

Date	Opp	IP	ER	K
09-21	Detroit Tigers	4.0	4	4

Opponent Advanced Stats vs Mets

WSN DJ Herz	2026	NYM Offense
23.1% 7.5% 3rd %ile	Barrel %	8.7 7.5% #7 MLB
0.293 0.248 19th %ile	xBA	0.254 0.248 #4 MLB
46.2% 37% 17th %ile	Hard Hit %	42.3 37% #11 MLB
0.63 0.400 7th %ile	xSLG %	0.424 0.400 #2 MLB

Opponent Advanced Stats vs Mets Splits

WSN DJ Herz	2026	NYM Profile
Left	Pitching Hand / vs Split	vs Left-handed pitching
4.0	Innings Pitched / Plate Appearances	3580
21.1% 22.5% 53rd %ile	K%	22.3 22.5% #19 MLB
10.5% 8.2% 40th %ile	BB%	8.6 8.2% #18 MLB

Bullpen Report

New York Mets Bullpen

Low

Season ERA 4.13 Season WHIP 1.27 Last 20 Days ERA 3.72

Closer

Devin Williams

16 SV / 19 SVO · 84.2% conversion · ERA 4.43

Last 7 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Washington Nationals Bullpen

Low

Season ERA 5.25 Season WHIP 1.6 Last 20 Days ERA 3.65

Closer

Gus Varland

6 SV / 8 SVO · 75% conversion · ERA 6.55

Last 7 days: 1 appearances, 1.1 IP

Recent Form — Last 20 Games vs Season

New York Mets

Stat	Season	Last 20 Days	% Difference
OPS Rank	#23 .704	#8 .768	+9.1%
BA Rank	#23 .239	#6 .261	+9.2%
K% Rank	#19 22.3%	#7 19.8%	+11.2%
BB% Rank	#19 8.6%	#8 9.7%	+12.8%

Washington Nationals

Stat	Season	Last 20 Days	% Difference
OPS Rank	#4 .743	#25 .649	-12.7%
BA Rank	#14 .246	#25 .225	-8.5%
K% Rank	#15 21.8%	#17 23.0%	-5.5%
BB% Rank	#14 9.0%	#22 7.9%	-12.2%

Projected Lineup Comparison

Order 1

New York Mets

Francisco Lindor

xBA

0.237

20.5%

Hard Hit

49.2%

WAR

2.0

Washington Nationals

James Wood

xBA

0.271

28.6%

Hard Hit

58.8%

WAR

4.0

Order 2

New York Mets

Nick Morabito

xBA

0.255

34.8%

Hard Hit

48%

WAR

-0.1

Washington Nationals

Abimelec Ortiz

xBA

0.211

26.5%

Hard Hit

38.7%

WAR

-0.6

Order 3

New York Mets

Bo Bichette

xBA

0.281

18.2%

Hard Hit

41.8%

WAR

2.0

Washington Nationals

Dylan Crews

xBA

0.241

24.1%

Hard Hit

42.7%

WAR

0.9

Order 4

New York Mets

Carson Benge

xBA

0.278

21.6%

Hard Hit

38.8%

WAR

4.1

Washington Nationals

CJ Abrams

xBA

0.247

24.3%

Hard Hit

40.7%

WAR

3.6

Order 5

New York Mets

Mark Vientos

xBA

0.231

24.1%

Hard Hit

43.7%

WAR

-1.2

Washington Nationals

José Tena

xBA

0.221

31.3%

Hard Hit

46.4%

WAR

-0.3

Order 6

New York Mets

Brett Baty

xBA

0.244

26.2%

Hard Hit

41.9%

WAR

1.2

Washington Nationals

Daylen Lile

xBA

0.257

19.4%

Hard Hit

38.1%

WAR

1.6

Order 7

New York Mets

Francisco Alvarez

xBA

0.23

30.7%

Hard Hit

48%

WAR

1.5

Washington Nationals

Yohandy Morales

xBA

0.258

31.9%

Hard Hit

62.5%

WAR

0.3

Order 8

New York Mets

A.J. Ewing

xBA

0.255

25.4%

Hard Hit

42%

WAR

2.0

Washington Nationals

Keibert Ruiz

xBA

0.247

10.5%

Hard Hit

36.6%

WAR

1.9

Order 9

New York Mets

Ronny Mauricio

xBA

0.2

32.8%

Hard Hit

35.1%

WAR

-0.3

Washington Nationals

Jorbit Vivas

xBA

0.236

14.6%

Hard Hit

21.5%

WAR

1.0

New York Mets					Order	Washington Nationals
Mets Player	xBA	K%	Hard Hit %	WAR	Order	Opponent Player	xBA	K%	Hard Hit %	WAR
Francisco Lindor	0.237	20.5%	49.2%	2.0	1	James Wood	0.271	28.6%	58.8%	4.0
Nick Morabito	0.255	34.8%	48%	-0.1	2	Abimelec Ortiz	0.211	26.5%	38.7%	-0.6
Bo Bichette	0.281	18.2%	41.8%	2.0	3	Dylan Crews	0.241	24.1%	42.7%	0.9
Carson Benge	0.278	21.6%	38.8%	4.1	4	CJ Abrams	0.247	24.3%	40.7%	3.6
Mark Vientos	0.231	24.1%	43.7%	-1.2	5	José Tena	0.221	31.3%	46.4%	-0.3
Brett Baty	0.244	26.2%	41.9%	1.2	6	Daylen Lile	0.257	19.4%	38.1%	1.6
Francisco Alvarez	0.23	30.7%	48%	1.5	7	Yohandy Morales	0.258	31.9%	62.5%	0.3
A.J. Ewing	0.255	25.4%	42%	2.0	8	Keibert Ruiz	0.247	10.5%	36.6%	1.9
Ronny Mauricio	0.2	32.8%	35.1%	-0.3	9	Jorbit Vivas	0.236	14.6%	21.5%	1.0

How This Analysis Is Built

MetsMoneyline builds each report from the game context already stored by the site: projected or confirmed lineups, starting pitcher indicators, bullpen form, recent team performance, and the available Mets market price. The goal is to show where the Mets may have a real edge, where the matchup is fragile, and why the official pick is framed the way it is.

This analysis is informational and entertainment-focused only. It is not a guarantee of results, and it should be read as a transparent game breakdown rather than a promise of profit.

Game Analysis

Why the Mets have a case

Sean Manaea: 4.67 ERA, 22.5%% K rate, 4.44 FIP, vs DJ Herz: 9.00 ERA, 5.85 FIP.
Bullpen: Mets BP: 4.13 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, Opp BP: 5.25 ERA, 4.47 xFIP.
Regression: xwOBA 0.326 vs actual wOBA .310 — expected stats above actual production.

Where the risk is

Overall lineup quality only: projected WAR 11.2 vs 12.4, projected lineup wRC+ 98.3 vs 104.5, xwOBA 0.326 vs 0.321.
Road/context splits lean against Mets.

Bottom line

Model leans Mets at -110. Primary edge: starting pitching.

Official MetsMoneyline Pick

Starter gap and value edge favor Mets

Recent form: Mets are 3-2 in the last 5; rest is 0 vs 0 days. Starting pitching: Sean Manaea 4.82 xERA, 4.67 ERA, N/A% K vs DJ Herz 8.42 xERA, 9.00 ERA, N/A% K; Offense: Mets wRC+ 96.0 vs 102.0; Bullpen: Mets xERA 3.98 vs 6.63. Price: Mets ML -110 implies 0.0% vs model 70.0%; value edge +70.0 points; Pick: New York Mets moneyline.

Mets Edges

Sean Manaea: 4.67 ERA, 22.5%% K rate, 4.44 FIP, vs DJ Herz: 9.00 ERA, 5.85 FIP.
Bullpen: Mets BP: 4.13 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, Opp BP: 5.25 ERA, 4.47 xFIP.
Regression: xwOBA 0.326 vs actual wOBA .310 — expected stats above actual production.

Risks / What Could Go Wrong

Overall lineup quality only: projected WAR 11.2 vs 12.4, projected lineup wRC+ 98.3 vs 104.5, xwOBA 0.326 vs 0.321.
Road/context splits lean against Mets.

Betting Angle

Primary edge: Sean Manaea versus DJ Herz with 4.82 xERA against 8.42. Secondary checks: offense 96.0 vs 102.0 wRC+, bullpen 3.98 vs 6.63 xERA, value edge +70.0 points. Value check: Mets ML -110 with 0.0% implied and 70.0% model probability; value edge +70.0 points.

Official Pick: Mets ML

Confidence: Standard (6/10)

Washington Nationals at Mets

Matchup Details

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Bullpen Report

Recent Form — Last 20 Games vs Season

Projected Lineup Comparison

How This Analysis Is Built

Game Analysis

Official MetsMoneyline Pick