Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks - 2026-06-27

Mets Situational Record

Situation	Record	Avg R	Avg RA
vs PHI	1-3 25%	3	6.8
Home games	18-23 44%	4.3	4.9
Day games	15-18 45%	4	4
Saturdays	4-8 33%	3.7	4.3
Home days	9-10 47%	4.5	4.4

Source: 2026 season game log • Full trend finder →

Matchup Details

New York Mets	Category	Philadelphia Phillies
N/A	Odds	N/A
34-48	Season Record	46-36
0-5	Last 5 Record	4-1
18-23 (home)	Home/Away Record	23-17 (away)
1-3	Season Series Record	3-1

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Christian Scott Record 2-0

NYM · R

Traditional

ERA

Avg: 4.2

87th %ile

2.98

WHIP

Avg: 1.28

49th %ile

1.35

Avg: 22.5

60th %ile

26.4%

BB%

Avg: 8.2

35th %ile

10.7%

Recent Starts

Date	Opp	IP	ER	K
06-11	St. Louis Cardinals	4.2	4	6
06-05	San Diego Padres	5.2	0	3
05-30	Miami Marlins	5.0	1	8

Advanced Stats vs Opponent

NYM Christian Scott	2026	PHI Offense
5.6% 7.5% 75th %ile	Barrel %	8.4 7.5% #19 MLB
0.246 0.248 55th %ile	xBA	0.254 0.248 #7 MLB
31.8% 37% 84th %ile	Hard Hit %	41.4 37% #10 MLB
0.384 0.400 62nd %ile	xSLG %	0.418 0.400 #13 MLB

Advanced Stats vs Opponent Splits

NYM Christian Scott	2026	PHI Profile
Right	Pitching Hand / vs Split	vs Right-handed pitching
42.1	Innings Pitched / Plate Appearances	2127
26.4% 22.5% 80th %ile	K%	23.2 22.5% #22 MLB
10.7% 8.2% 39th %ile	BB%	7.8 8.2% #27 MLB

Tim Mayza Record 2-2

Philadelphia Phillies · L

Traditional

ERA

Avg: 4.2

87th %ile

2.97

WHIP

Avg: 1.28

90th %ile

0.99

Avg: 22.5

55th %ile

25%

BB%

Avg: 8.2

87th %ile

Recent Starts

Date	Opp	IP	ER	K
06-25	Washington Nationals	1.0	0	0
06-22	Washington Nationals	1.0	1	2
06-17	Miami Marlins	2.0	0	3

Opponent Advanced Stats vs Mets

PHI Tim Mayza	2026	NYM Offense
5.2% 7.5% 78th %ile	Barrel %	9.6 7.5% #9 MLB
0.23 0.248 70th %ile	xBA	0.26 0.248 #6 MLB
42.3% 37% 39th %ile	Hard Hit %	42.8 37% #8 MLB
0.354 0.400 74th %ile	xSLG %	0.441 0.400 #4 MLB

Opponent Advanced Stats vs Mets Splits

PHI Tim Mayza	2026	NYM Profile
Left	Pitching Hand / vs Split	vs Left-handed pitching
36.1	Innings Pitched / Plate Appearances	2019
25% 22.5% 75th %ile	K%	22.3 22.5% #18 MLB
5% 8.2% 90th %ile	BB%	7.9 8.2% #25 MLB

Bullpen Report

New York Mets Bullpen

Low

Season ERA 3.14 Season WHIP 1.18 Last 20 Days ERA 2.41

Closer

Devin Williams

11 SV / 12 SVO · 91.7% conversion · ERA 4.44

Last 7 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen

Low

Season ERA 3.53 Season WHIP 1.2 Last 20 Days ERA 4.23

Closer

Jhoan Duran

20 SV / 21 SVO · 95.2% conversion · ERA 1.63

Last 7 days: 4 appearances, 4.0 IP

Recent Form — Last 20 Games vs Season

New York Mets

Stat	Season	Last 20 Days	% Difference
OPS Rank	#29 .672	#18 .729	+8.5%
BA Rank	#26 .231	#20 .238	+3.0%
K% Rank	#18 22.3%	#20 23.4%	-4.9%
BB% Rank	#25 7.9%	#10 9.1%	+15.2%

Philadelphia Phillies

Stat	Season	Last 20 Days	% Difference
OPS Rank	#23 .702	#10 .770	+9.7%
BA Rank	#24 .236	#13 .260	+10.2%
K% Rank	#24 23.2%	#27 25.9%	-11.6%
BB% Rank	#28 7.8%	#23 7.5%	-3.8%

Projected Lineup Comparison

Order 1

New York Mets

Carson Benge

xBA

0.28

21.6%

Hard Hit

42.9%

WAR

1.4

Philadelphia Phillies

Trea Turner

xBA

0.24

22.4%

Hard Hit

39.2%

WAR

0.2

Order 2

New York Mets

Juan Soto

xBA

0.302

13.1%

Hard Hit

50%

WAR

2.3

Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Schwarber

xBA

0.252

33.7%

Hard Hit

52.3%

WAR

2.6

Order 3

New York Mets

Bo Bichette

xBA

0.285

18.4%

Hard Hit

44.6%

WAR

1.0

Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Harper

xBA

0.294

18.7%

Hard Hit

46.1%

WAR

1.7

Order 4

New York Mets

Francisco Lindor

xBA

0.252

16.7%

Hard Hit

44.6%

WAR

0.3

Philadelphia Phillies

Brandon Marsh

xBA

0.283

25.2%

Hard Hit

46.4%

WAR

1.7

Order 5

New York Mets

Jared Young

xBA

0.249

21.8%

Hard Hit

48.7%

WAR

0.5

Philadelphia Phillies

Bryson Stott

xBA

0.258

17.2%

Hard Hit

39.6%

WAR

1.3

Order 6

New York Mets

Mark Vientos

xBA

0.242

23%

Hard Hit

43.8%

WAR

-0.9

Philadelphia Phillies

Edmundo Sosa

xBA

0.281

22.7%

Hard Hit

40.6%

WAR

0.1

Order 7

New York Mets

A.J. Ewing

xBA

0.285

25.3%

Hard Hit

43.1%

WAR

1.0

Philadelphia Phillies

Gabriel Rincones Jr.

xBA

0.138

23.3%

Hard Hit

34.8%

WAR

N/A

Order 8

New York Mets

Brett Baty

xBA

0.225

28.4%

Hard Hit

37.8%

WAR

-0.3

Philadelphia Phillies

Justin Crawford

xBA

0.242

21.5%

Hard Hit

33.1%

WAR

-0.1

Order 9

New York Mets

Francisco Alvarez

xBA

0.257

24.5%

Hard Hit

44.2%

WAR

0.9

Philadelphia Phillies

Rafael Marchán

xBA

0.17

17.9%

Hard Hit

21.3%

WAR

-0.2

New York Mets					Order	Philadelphia Phillies
Mets Player	xBA	K%	Hard Hit %	WAR	Order	Opponent Player	xBA	K%	Hard Hit %	WAR
Carson Benge	0.28	21.6%	42.9%	1.4	1	Trea Turner	0.24	22.4%	39.2%	0.2
Juan Soto	0.302	13.1%	50%	2.3	2	Kyle Schwarber	0.252	33.7%	52.3%	2.6
Bo Bichette	0.285	18.4%	44.6%	1.0	3	Bryce Harper	0.294	18.7%	46.1%	1.7
Francisco Lindor	0.252	16.7%	44.6%	0.3	4	Brandon Marsh	0.283	25.2%	46.4%	1.7
Jared Young	0.249	21.8%	48.7%	0.5	5	Bryson Stott	0.258	17.2%	39.6%	1.3
Mark Vientos	0.242	23%	43.8%	-0.9	6	Edmundo Sosa	0.281	22.7%	40.6%	0.1
A.J. Ewing	0.285	25.3%	43.1%	1.0	7	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	0.138	23.3%	34.8%	N/A
Brett Baty	0.225	28.4%	37.8%	-0.3	8	Justin Crawford	0.242	21.5%	33.1%	-0.1
Francisco Alvarez	0.257	24.5%	44.2%	0.9	9	Rafael Marchán	0.17	17.9%	21.3%	-0.2

How This Analysis Is Built

MetsMoneyline builds each report from the game context already stored by the site: projected or confirmed lineups, starting pitcher indicators, bullpen form, recent team performance, and the available Mets market price. The goal is to show where the Mets may have a real edge, where the matchup is fragile, and why the official pick is framed the way it is.

This analysis is informational and entertainment-focused only. It is not a guarantee of results, and it should be read as a transparent game breakdown rather than a promise of profit.

Game Analysis

Why the Mets have a case

No single dominant Mets edge. Lineup quality is the primary case.

Where the risk is

Tim Mayza has the better pitching profile: K% 25% vs 26.4%, FIP 3.28 vs 3.84.
Overall lineup quality only: projected WAR 6.2 vs 7.3, projected lineup wRC+ 103.3 vs 107.8, xwOBA 0.332 vs 0.322.

Bottom line

Model leans opponent, but Mets ML is still the play based on the best available angle.

Official MetsMoneyline Pick

Mets ML with measured edge

Recent form: Mets are 0-5 in the last 5; rest is 0 vs 0 days. Starting pitching: Christian Scott 4.46 xERA, 2.98 ERA, N/A% K vs Tim Mayza 3.03 xERA, 2.97 ERA, N/A% K; Offense: Mets wRC+ 90.0 vs 93.0; Bullpen: Mets xERA 3.69 vs 3.23. Price: Mets ML 0 implies 0.0% vs model 35.0%; value edge +35.0 points; Pick: New York Mets moneyline.

Mets Edges

No single dominant Mets edge. Lineup quality is the primary case.

Risks / What Could Go Wrong

Tim Mayza has the better pitching profile: K% 25% vs 26.4%, FIP 3.28 vs 3.84.
Overall lineup quality only: projected WAR 6.2 vs 7.3, projected lineup wRC+ 103.3 vs 107.8, xwOBA 0.332 vs 0.322.

Betting Angle

Primary edge: Christian Scott versus Tim Mayza with 4.46 xERA against 3.03. Secondary checks: offense 90.0 vs 93.0 wRC+, bullpen 3.69 vs 3.23 xERA, value edge +35.0 points. Value check: Mets ML 0 with 0.0% implied and 35.0% model probability; value edge +35.0 points.

Official Pick: Mets ML

Confidence: Low (4/10)

Philadelphia Phillies at Mets

Matchup Details

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Bullpen Report

Recent Form — Last 20 Games vs Season

Projected Lineup Comparison

How This Analysis Is Built

Game Analysis

Official MetsMoneyline Pick