Mets vs Detroit Tigers Picks - 2026-05-13

Matchup Details

New York Mets	Category	Detroit Tigers
-110	Odds	-106
16-25	Season Record	19-23
2-3	Last 5 Record	1-4
7-12 (home)	Home/Away Record	7-17 (away)
1-0	Season Series Record	0-1

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Christian Scott Record 0-0

NYM · R

Traditional

ERA

Avg: 4.2

79th %ile

3.27

WHIP

Avg: 1.28

69th %ile

1.18

Avg: 22.5

78th %ile

31.3%

BB%

Avg: 8.2

5th %ile

14.6%

Recent Starts

Date	Opp	IP	ER	K
05-07	Colorado Rockies	4.2	1	6
05-01	Los Angeles Angels	5.0	2	8
04-23	Minnesota Twins	1.1	1	1

Advanced Stats vs Opponent

NYM Christian Scott	2026	DET Offense
4.2% 7.5% 82nd %ile	Barrel %	11.4 7.5% #5 MLB
0.172 0.248 92nd %ile	xBA	0.258 0.248 #4 MLB
29.2% 37% 89th %ile	Hard Hit %	43.2 37% #25 MLB
0.277 0.400 90th %ile	xSLG %	0.457 0.400 #4 MLB

Advanced Stats vs Opponent Splits

NYM Christian Scott	2026	DET Profile
Right	Pitching Hand / vs Split	vs Right-handed pitching
11.0	Innings Pitched / Plate Appearances	791
31.3% 22.5% 91st %ile	K%	22.2 22.5% #17 MLB
14.6% 8.2% 19th %ile	BB%	10.1 8.2% #12 MLB

Framber Valdez Record 2-2

Detroit Tigers · L

Traditional

ERA

Avg: 4.2

44th %ile

4.57

WHIP

Avg: 1.28

43th %ile

1.41

Avg: 22.5

29th %ile

17.9%

BB%

Avg: 8.2

62th %ile

7.7%

Recent Starts

Date	Opp	IP	ER	K
05-05	Boston Red Sox	3.0	7	3
04-30	Atlanta Braves	6.0	2	8
04-24	Cincinnati Reds	4.1	2	4

Opponent Advanced Stats vs Mets

DET Framber Valdez	2026	NYM Offense
6.5% 7.5% 66th %ile	Barrel %	9 7.5% #16 MLB
0.258 0.248 44th %ile	xBA	0.249 0.248 #14 MLB
44.7% 37% 32nd %ile	Hard Hit %	41.7 37% #7 MLB
0.411 0.400 54th %ile	xSLG %	0.413 0.400 #14 MLB

Opponent Advanced Stats vs Mets Splits

DET Framber Valdez	2026	NYM Profile
Left	Pitching Hand / vs Split	vs Left-handed pitching
43.1	Innings Pitched / Plate Appearances	904
17.9% 22.5% 34th %ile	K%	20.9 22.5% #8 MLB
7.7% 8.2% 70th %ile	BB%	8.2 8.2% #24 MLB

Bullpen Report

New York Mets Bullpen

Low

Season ERA 4.36 Season WHIP 1.39 Last 20 Days ERA 3.98

Closer

Devin Williams

5 SV / 6 SVO · 83.3% conversion · ERA 5.68

Last 7 days: 2 appearances, 1.2 IP

Detroit Tigers Bullpen

Low

Season ERA 4.08 Season WHIP 1.39 Last 20 Days ERA 3.81

Closer

Kenley Jansen

7 SV / 10 SVO · 70% conversion · ERA 4.82

Last 7 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Recent Form — Last 20 Games vs Season

New York Mets

Stat	Season	Last 20 Days	% Difference
OPS Rank	#30 .634	#29 .656	+3.5%
BA Rank	#28 .225	#26 .230	+2.2%
K% Rank	#8 20.9%	#8 19.9%	+4.8%
BB% Rank	#24 8.2%	#18 8.7%	+6.1%

Detroit Tigers

Stat	Season	Last 20 Days	% Difference
OPS Rank	#9 .716	#11 .731	+2.1%
BA Rank	#13 .243	#17 .239	-1.6%
K% Rank	#17 22.2%	#20 22.9%	-3.2%
BB% Rank	#12 10.1%	#5 10.4%	+3.0%

Projected Lineup Comparison

Order 1

New York Mets

Carson Benge

xBA

0.258

22%

Hard Hit

43.5%

WAR

0.3

Detroit Tigers

Zack Short

xBA

0.117

30%

Hard Hit

50%

WAR

-0.1

Order 2

New York Mets

Bo Bichette

xBA

0.285

17.2%

Hard Hit

44.5%

WAR

0.0

Detroit Tigers

Matt Vierling

xBA

0.275

15.7%

Hard Hit

38.3%

WAR

0.0

Order 3

New York Mets

Tyrone Taylor

xBA

0.219

17.1%

Hard Hit

29.5%

WAR

-0.5

Detroit Tigers

Jahmai Jones

xBA

0.264

34.6%

Hard Hit

51.6%

WAR

-0.4

Order 4

New York Mets

Mark Vientos

xBA

0.274

22.3%

Hard Hit

46%

WAR

-0.2

Detroit Tigers

Riley Greene

xBA

0.272

27.6%

Hard Hit

50.5%

WAR

1.3

Order 5

New York Mets

Austin Slater

xBA

0.189

30.4%

Hard Hit

14.3%

WAR

-0.1

Detroit Tigers

Dillon Dingler

xBA

0.298

19.6%

Hard Hit

51%

WAR

1.3

Order 6

New York Mets

Brett Baty

xBA

0.226

26.7%

Hard Hit

38.6%

WAR

-0.2

Detroit Tigers

Wenceel Pérez

xBA

0.219

12.8%

Hard Hit

40%

WAR

-0.7

Order 7

New York Mets

Marcus Semien

xBA

0.238

19.9%

Hard Hit

34.2%

WAR

-0.1

Detroit Tigers

Gage Workman

xBA

0.369

16.7%

Hard Hit

40%

WAR

0.1

Order 8

New York Mets

A.J. Ewing

xBA

0.589

Hard Hit

100%

WAR

N/A

Detroit Tigers

Spencer Torkelson

xBA

0.229

31.1%

Hard Hit

48.3%

WAR

0.2

Order 9

New York Mets

Luis Torrens

xBA

0.234

19.2%

Hard Hit

48.7%

WAR

0.3

Detroit Tigers

Hao-Yu Lee

xBA

0.213

31.4%

Hard Hit

40.6%

WAR

N/A

New York Mets					Order	Detroit Tigers
Mets Player	xBA	K%	Hard Hit %	WAR	Order	Opponent Player	xBA	K%	Hard Hit %	WAR
Carson Benge	0.258	22%	43.5%	0.3	1	Zack Short	0.117	30%	50%	-0.1
Bo Bichette	0.285	17.2%	44.5%	0.0	2	Matt Vierling	0.275	15.7%	38.3%	0.0
Tyrone Taylor	0.219	17.1%	29.5%	-0.5	3	Jahmai Jones	0.264	34.6%	51.6%	-0.4
Mark Vientos	0.274	22.3%	46%	-0.2	4	Riley Greene	0.272	27.6%	50.5%	1.3
Austin Slater	0.189	30.4%	14.3%	-0.1	5	Dillon Dingler	0.298	19.6%	51%	1.3
Brett Baty	0.226	26.7%	38.6%	-0.2	6	Wenceel Pérez	0.219	12.8%	40%	-0.7
Marcus Semien	0.238	19.9%	34.2%	-0.1	7	Gage Workman	0.369	16.7%	40%	0.1
A.J. Ewing	0.589	0%	100%	N/A	8	Spencer Torkelson	0.229	31.1%	48.3%	0.2
Luis Torrens	0.234	19.2%	48.7%	0.3	9	Hao-Yu Lee	0.213	31.4%	40.6%	N/A

How This Analysis Is Built

MetsMoneyline builds each report from the game context already stored by the site: projected or confirmed lineups, starting pitcher indicators, bullpen form, recent team performance, and the available Mets market price. The goal is to show where the Mets may have a real edge, where the matchup is fragile, and why the official pick is framed the way it is.

This analysis is informational and entertainment-focused only. It is not a guarantee of results, and it should be read as a transparent game breakdown rather than a promise of profit.

Game Analysis

Why the Mets have a case

Christian Scott: 3.27 ERA, 31.3%% K rate, 4.03 FIP, vs Framber Valdez: 4.57 ERA, 4.32 FIP.
Bullpen: Mets BP: 4.36 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, Opp BP: 4.08 ERA, 4.02 xFIP.
Regression: xwOBA 0.315 vs actual wOBA .286 — expected stats above actual production.

Where the risk is

Overall lineup quality only: projected WAR -0.5 vs 1.7, projected lineup wRC+ 71.2 vs 103.4, xwOBA 0.315 vs 0.346.

Bottom line

Model leans Mets at -110. Primary edge: starting pitching.

Official MetsMoneyline Pick

Mets ML Pick

The Mets enter this one at 2-3 over their last 5, a mixed run that makes today more about the matchup than the streak. The xERA read splits in New York's favor: Christian Scott at 3.30 versus Framber Valdez's 4.32, a 1.02-run edge on contact-quality projection. Context worth noting: the Mets' rotation ranks 3rd in the league by FIP, putting this lineup behind one of the better pitching groups in baseball right now. Taking the Mets here. The analytical lean is unambiguous and the matchup structure supports it.

Mets Edges

xERA/FIP profile: Christian Scott 3.30/4.03 vs Framber Valdez 4.32/4.32; K-BB% 16.7 to 10.2.
Bullpen shape: xFIP 3.63 vs 4.02, WHIP 1.39 vs 1.39, last 3-day usage N/A IP vs N/A IP.
Regression lens: Mets BA-xBA -0.030 and wOBA-xwOBA -0.035; opponent starter overperformance signal 1.50.

Risks / What Could Go Wrong

Overall lineup quality only: projected WAR -0.5 vs 1.7, projected lineup wRC+ 71.2 vs 103.4, xwOBA 0.315 vs 0.346.

Betting Angle

Primary edge: Christian Scott's run-prevention metrics. Bullpen shape: xFIP 3.63 vs 4.02, WHIP 1.39 vs 1.39, last 3-day usage N/A IP vs N/A IP.

Official Pick: Mets ML

Confidence: Standard (6/10)

Detroit Tigers at Mets

Matchup Details

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Bullpen Report

Recent Form — Last 20 Games vs Season

Projected Lineup Comparison

How This Analysis Is Built

Game Analysis

Official MetsMoneyline Pick