Mets vs San Diego Padres Picks - 2026-08-17

Mets Situational Record

Situation	Record	Avg R	Avg RA
Home games	27-34 44%	4.3	4.6
Day games	24-26 48%	4.3	4
Mondays	6-6 50%	5.1	5.1
Home days	14-15 48%	4.2	4

Source: 2026 season game log • Full trend finder →

Matchup Details

New York Mets	Category	San Diego Padres
-122	Odds	-122
56-69	Season Record	67-58
3-2	Last 5 Record	4-1
28-34 (home)	Home/Away Record	30-32 (away)
2-1	Season Series Record	1-2

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Nolan McLean Record 8-8

NYM · R

Traditional

ERA

Avg: 4.2

75th %ile

3.42

WHIP

Avg: 1.28

74th %ile

1.13

Avg: 22.5

66th %ile

28%

BB%

Avg: 8.2

52th %ile

8.8%

Recent Starts

Date	Opp	IP	ER	K
08-11	Atlanta Braves	6.0	1	3
08-06	Cleveland Guardians	5.0	5	8
07-30	Miami Marlins	6.1	2	6

Advanced Stats vs Opponent

NYM Nolan McLean	2026	SDP Offense
7% 7.5% 61st %ile	Barrel %	8.3 7.5% #10 MLB
0.22 0.248 77th %ile	xBA	0.248 0.248 #10 MLB
35.8% 37% 69th %ile	Hard Hit %	41.9 37% #12 MLB
0.349 0.400 76th %ile	xSLG %	0.401 0.400 #14 MLB

Advanced Stats vs Opponent Splits

NYM Nolan McLean	2026	SDP Profile
Right	Pitching Hand / vs Split	vs Right-handed pitching
136.2	Innings Pitched / Plate Appearances	3065
28% 22.5% 88th %ile	K%	21.8 22.5% #17 MLB
8.8% 8.2% 58th %ile	BB%	9.2 8.2% #10 MLB

Walker Buehler Record 7-5

San Diego Padres · R

Traditional

ERA

Avg: 4.2

35th %ile

4.88

WHIP

Avg: 1.28

40th %ile

1.43

Avg: 22.5

37th %ile

20.1%

BB%

Avg: 8.2

46th %ile

9.5%

Recent Starts

Date	Opp	IP	ER	K
08-11	Milwaukee Brewers	6.0	1	5
08-06	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.0	1	3
08-01	San Francisco Giants	4.1	3	1

Opponent Advanced Stats vs Mets

SDP Walker Buehler	2026	NYM Offense
8.4% 7.5% 44th %ile	Barrel %	8.2 7.5% #7 MLB
0.25 0.248 51st %ile	xBA	0.25 0.248 #6 MLB
39.7% 37% 49th %ile	Hard Hit %	41.5 37% #16 MLB
0.402 0.400 53rd %ile	xSLG %	0.404 0.400 #5 MLB

Opponent Advanced Stats vs Mets Splits

SDP Walker Buehler	2026	NYM Profile
Right	Pitching Hand / vs Split	vs Right-handed pitching
114.1	Innings Pitched / Plate Appearances	2810
20.1% 22.5% 48th %ile	K%	22.7 22.5% #19 MLB
9.5% 8.2% 51st %ile	BB%	8.6 8.2% #20 MLB

Bullpen Report

New York Mets Bullpen

Low

Season ERA 3.26 Season WHIP 1.07 Last 20 Days ERA 3.06

Closer

Daniel Duarte

1 SV / 1 SVO · 100% conversion · ERA 0.93

Last 7 days: 3 appearances, 4.0 IP

San Diego Padres Bullpen

Low

Season ERA 2.22 Season WHIP 1.03 Last 20 Days ERA 1.77

Closer

Mason Miller

30 SV / 31 SVO · 96.8% conversion · ERA 0.88

Last 7 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Recent Form — Last 20 Games vs Season

New York Mets

Stat	Season	Last 20 Days	% Difference
OPS Rank	#26 .697	#5 .761	+9.2%
BA Rank	#25 .236	#10 .254	+7.6%
K% Rank	#21 22.7%	#23 24.1%	-6.2%
BB% Rank	#20 8.6%	#12 9.2%	+7.0%

San Diego Padres

Stat	Season	Last 20 Days	% Difference
OPS Rank	#22 .704	#4 .767	+8.9%
BA Rank	#23 .238	#2 .272	+14.3%
K% Rank	#17 21.8%	#4 18.5%	+15.1%
BB% Rank	#10 9.2%	#15 9.1%	-1.1%

Projected Lineup Comparison

Order 1

New York Mets

A.J. Ewing

xBA

0.259

25.4%

Hard Hit

43.9%

WAR

1.4

San Diego Padres

Fernando Tatis Jr.

xBA

0.289

18.8%

Hard Hit

52.6%

WAR

3.1

Order 2

New York Mets

Francisco Lindor

xBA

0.257

18.8%

Hard Hit

49.8%

WAR

1.7

San Diego Padres

Jake Cronenworth

xBA

0.224

21.8%

Hard Hit

30.8%

WAR

-0.2

Order 3

New York Mets

Bo Bichette

xBA

0.277

18.2%

Hard Hit

40.4%

WAR

1.5

San Diego Padres

Manny Machado

xBA

0.244

21.8%

Hard Hit

45%

WAR

1.7

Order 4

New York Mets

Carson Benge

xBA

0.283

21.5%

Hard Hit

41.5%

WAR

2.7

San Diego Padres

Ty France

xBA

0.251

22.5%

Hard Hit

49.2%

WAR

2.5

Order 5

New York Mets

Jared Young

xBA

0.247

19.2%

Hard Hit

48.8%

WAR

1.0

San Diego Padres

Jackson Merrill

xBA

0.26

24.1%

Hard Hit

47.3%

WAR

2.7

Order 6

New York Mets

Luis Robert Jr.

xBA

0.228

24.6%

Hard Hit

37.5%

WAR

0.2

San Diego Padres

Sung-Mun Song

xBA

0.186

18.3%

Hard Hit

24.4%

WAR

0.5

Order 7

New York Mets

Brett Baty

xBA

0.229

27.8%

Hard Hit

40.4%

WAR

0.0

San Diego Padres

Jase Bowen

xBA

0.21

38%

Hard Hit

35.6%

WAR

-0.5

Order 8

New York Mets

Jorge Polanco

xBA

0.182

25.4%

Hard Hit

30.9%

WAR

-1.4

San Diego Padres

Xander Bogaerts

xBA

0.248

17.8%

Hard Hit

40.1%

WAR

1.7

Order 9

New York Mets

Luis Torrens

xBA

0.235

19.4%

Hard Hit

39.6%

WAR

1.7

San Diego Padres

Freddy Fermin

xBA

0.206

21.1%

Hard Hit

27.6%

WAR

0.7

New York Mets					Order	San Diego Padres
Mets Player	xBA	K%	Hard Hit %	WAR	Order	Opponent Player	xBA	K%	Hard Hit %	WAR
A.J. Ewing	0.259	25.4%	43.9%	1.4	1	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.289	18.8%	52.6%	3.1
Francisco Lindor	0.257	18.8%	49.8%	1.7	2	Jake Cronenworth	0.224	21.8%	30.8%	-0.2
Bo Bichette	0.277	18.2%	40.4%	1.5	3	Manny Machado	0.244	21.8%	45%	1.7
Carson Benge	0.283	21.5%	41.5%	2.7	4	Ty France	0.251	22.5%	49.2%	2.5
Jared Young	0.247	19.2%	48.8%	1.0	5	Jackson Merrill	0.26	24.1%	47.3%	2.7
Luis Robert Jr.	0.228	24.6%	37.5%	0.2	6	Sung-Mun Song	0.186	18.3%	24.4%	0.5
Brett Baty	0.229	27.8%	40.4%	0.0	7	Jase Bowen	0.21	38%	35.6%	-0.5
Jorge Polanco	0.182	25.4%	30.9%	-1.4	8	Xander Bogaerts	0.248	17.8%	40.1%	1.7
Luis Torrens	0.235	19.4%	39.6%	1.7	9	Freddy Fermin	0.206	21.1%	27.6%	0.7

How This Analysis Is Built

MetsMoneyline builds each report from the game context already stored by the site: projected or confirmed lineups, starting pitcher indicators, bullpen form, recent team performance, and the available Mets market price. The goal is to show where the Mets may have a real edge, where the matchup is fragile, and why the official pick is framed the way it is.

This analysis is informational and entertainment-focused only. It is not a guarantee of results, and it should be read as a transparent game breakdown rather than a promise of profit.

Game Analysis

Why the Mets have a case

Nolan McLean: 3.42 ERA, 28%% K rate, 3.57 FIP, vs Walker Buehler: 4.88 ERA, 4.29 FIP.
Bullpen: Mets BP: 3.26 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, Opp BP: 2.22 ERA, 4.24 xFIP.
Regression: xwOBA 0.317 vs actual wOBA .307 — expected stats above actual production.

Where the risk is

Overall lineup quality only: projected WAR 8.8 vs 12.2, projected lineup wRC+ 95.1 vs 96.6, xwOBA 0.317 vs 0.322.

Bottom line

Model leans Mets at -122. Primary edge: starting pitching.

Official MetsMoneyline Pick

Starter gap and value edge favor Mets

Recent form: Mets are 3-2 in the last 5; rest is 0 vs 0 days. Starting pitching: Nolan McLean 3.62 xERA, 3.42 ERA, N/A% K vs Walker Buehler 4.35 xERA, 4.88 ERA, N/A% K; Offense: Mets wRC+ 95.0 vs 98.0; Bullpen: Mets xERA 4.58 vs 2.63. Price: Mets ML -122 implies 0.0% vs model 70.0%; value edge +70.0 points; Pick: New York Mets moneyline.

Mets Edges

Nolan McLean: 3.42 ERA, 28%% K rate, 3.57 FIP, vs Walker Buehler: 4.88 ERA, 4.29 FIP.
Bullpen: Mets BP: 3.26 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, Opp BP: 2.22 ERA, 4.24 xFIP.
Regression: xwOBA 0.317 vs actual wOBA .307 — expected stats above actual production.

Risks / What Could Go Wrong

Overall lineup quality only: projected WAR 8.8 vs 12.2, projected lineup wRC+ 95.1 vs 96.6, xwOBA 0.317 vs 0.322.

Betting Angle

Primary edge: Nolan McLean versus Walker Buehler with 3.62 xERA against 4.35. Secondary checks: offense 95.0 vs 98.0 wRC+, bullpen 4.58 vs 2.63 xERA, value edge +70.0 points. Value check: Mets ML -122 with 0.0% implied and 70.0% model probability; value edge +70.0 points.

Official Pick: Mets ML

Confidence: Standard (6/10)

San Diego Padres at Mets

Matchup Details

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Bullpen Report

Recent Form — Last 20 Games vs Season

Projected Lineup Comparison

How This Analysis Is Built

Game Analysis

Official MetsMoneyline Pick