Washington Nationals at Mets Betting Breakdown

Matchup Details

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Freddy Peralta Record 2-3

NYM · R

Traditional

ERA

Avg: 4.2

62th %ile

3.90

WHIP

Avg: 1.28

65th %ile

1.21

K%

Avg: 22.5

58th %ile

25.9%

BB%

Avg: 8.2

47th %ile

9.4%

Recent Starts

Date	Opp	IP	ER	K
04-24	Colorado Rockies	5.2	2	8
04-18	Chicago Cubs	5.2	3	3
04-12	Athletics	6.0	1	6

Advanced Stats vs Opponent

NYM Freddy Peralta	2026	WSN Offense
5.7% 7.5% 73rd %ile	Barrel %	9.2 7.5% #16 MLB
0.227 0.248 70th %ile	xBA	0.251 0.248 #7 MLB
37.5% 37% 65th %ile	Hard Hit %	40 37% #26 MLB
0.358 0.400 72nd %ile	xSLG %	0.414 0.400 #9 MLB

Advanced Stats vs Opponent Splits

NYM Freddy Peralta	2026	WSN Profile
Right	Pitching Hand / vs Split	vs Right-handed pitching
32.1	Innings Pitched / Plate Appearances	816
25.9% 22.5% 76th %ile	K%	22 22.5% #16 MLB
9.4% 8.2% 52nd %ile	BB%	9.6 8.2% #19 MLB

Miles Mikolas Record 2-3

Washington Nationals · R

Traditional

ERA

Avg: 4.2

5th %ile

8.49

WHIP

Avg: 1.28

5th %ile

1.84

K%

Avg: 22.5

16th %ile

14.4%

BB%

Avg: 8.2

50th %ile

9%

Recent Starts

Date	Opp	IP	ER	K
04-24	Chicago White Sox	3.2	2	1
04-19	San Francisco Giants	4.0	0	4
04-14	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.1	3	0

Opponent Advanced Stats vs Mets

WSN Miles Mikolas	2026	NYM Offense
11.8% 7.5% 26th %ile	Barrel %	6.9 7.5% #20 MLB
0.268 0.248 36th %ile	xBA	0.245 0.248 #17 MLB
44.7% 37% 33rd %ile	Hard Hit %	39.7 37% #11 MLB
0.513 0.400 20th %ile	xSLG %	0.396 0.400 #17 MLB

Opponent Advanced Stats vs Mets Splits

WSN Miles Mikolas	2026	NYM Profile
Right	Pitching Hand / vs Split	vs Right-handed pitching
23.1	Innings Pitched / Plate Appearances	579
14.4% 22.5% 18th %ile	K%	21.5 22.5% #11 MLB
9% 8.2% 57th %ile	BB%	7.9 8.2% #27 MLB

Projected Lineup Comparison

Order 1

New York Mets

Bo Bichette

xBA

0.29

K%

21.3%

Hard Hit

46.2%

WAR

0.0

Washington Nationals

James Wood

xBA

0.272

K%

31.7%

Hard Hit

64.7%

WAR

1.2

Order 2

New York Mets

Juan Soto

xBA

0.326

K%

13.6%

Hard Hit

40.5%

WAR

0.6

Washington Nationals

Curtis Mead

xBA

0.262

K%

17.2%

Hard Hit

43.5%

WAR

0.3

Order 3

New York Mets

Austin Slater

xBA

0.185

K%

32.1%

Hard Hit

13.3%

WAR

0.0

Washington Nationals

Brady House

xBA

0.23

K%

31.6%

Hard Hit

42.9%

WAR

-0.1

Order 4

New York Mets

Francisco Alvarez

xBA

0.228

K%

19.4%

Hard Hit

40.3%

WAR

0.3

Washington Nationals

José Tena

xBA

0.23

K%

30%

Hard Hit

40.6%

WAR

-0.1

Order 5

New York Mets

Brett Baty

xBA

0.234

K%

28.3%

Hard Hit

39.3%

WAR

-0.3

Washington Nationals

Jacob Young

xBA

0.281

K%

17.2%

Hard Hit

33.8%

WAR

0.1

Order 6

New York Mets

Tyrone Taylor

xBA

0.248

K%

17.4%

Hard Hit

24.3%

WAR

-0.1

Washington Nationals

Daylen Lile

xBA

0.286

K%

16%

Hard Hit

39.2%

WAR

0.4

Order 7

New York Mets

Carson Benge

xBA

0.232

K%

21.3%

Hard Hit

42.9%

WAR

0.0

Washington Nationals

Joey Wiemer

xBA

0.219

K%

36.2%

Hard Hit

41.4%

WAR

0.9

Order 8

New York Mets

Luis Torrens

xBA

0.272

K%

18.5%

Hard Hit

59.1%

WAR

0.2

Washington Nationals

Nasim Nuñez

xBA

0.21

K%

20.6%

Hard Hit

17.6%

WAR

0.0

Order 9

New York Mets

Ronny Mauricio

xBA

0.174

K%

33.3%

Hard Hit

16.7%

WAR

-0.2

Washington Nationals

Keibert Ruiz

xBA

0.163

K%

13.2%

Hard Hit

38.6%

WAR

-0.1

New York Mets					Order	Washington Nationals
Mets Player	xBA	K%	Hard Hit %	WAR	Order	Opponent Player	xBA	K%	Hard Hit %	WAR
Bo Bichette	0.29	21.3%	46.2%	0.0	1	James Wood	0.272	31.7%	64.7%	1.2
Juan Soto	0.326	13.6%	40.5%	0.6	2	Curtis Mead	0.262	17.2%	43.5%	0.3
Austin Slater	0.185	32.1%	13.3%	0.0	3	Brady House	0.23	31.6%	42.9%	-0.1
Francisco Alvarez	0.228	19.4%	40.3%	0.3	4	José Tena	0.23	30%	40.6%	-0.1
Brett Baty	0.234	28.3%	39.3%	-0.3	5	Jacob Young	0.281	17.2%	33.8%	0.1
Tyrone Taylor	0.248	17.4%	24.3%	-0.1	6	Daylen Lile	0.286	16%	39.2%	0.4
Carson Benge	0.232	21.3%	42.9%	0.0	7	Joey Wiemer	0.219	36.2%	41.4%	0.9
Luis Torrens	0.272	18.5%	59.1%	0.2	8	Nasim Nuñez	0.21	20.6%	17.6%	0.0
Ronny Mauricio	0.174	33.3%	16.7%	-0.2	9	Keibert Ruiz	0.163	13.2%	38.6%	-0.1

Game Analysis

• Freddy Peralta gives New York the cleaner run-prevention case in the underlying metrics that are actually available.
• There is at least a plausible positive-regression case if the Mets' quality of contact finally turns into actual runs.
• There is still a workable bullpen path if the game reaches the middle innings in a tie or with a narrow Mets lead.

• The softer context inputs lean slightly away from New York, and several of those inputs are still incomplete.

The board still leans Mets, but the strongest case is narrow enough that the writeup should stay disciplined.

Official MetsMoneyline Pick

Official Pick: Mets ML

The best path starts with Freddy Peralta giving New York the steadier underlying pitching line. There is also a reasonable positive-regression case if the Mets' contact quality finally cashes in.